When I wrote our M&A Outlook in the first quarter, I argued that the deal market remained resilient despite the geopolitical noise, and that the mid-market would continue to be where the real action was in 2026. Halfway through the year, the evidence is stacking up on both fronts. 

Joanne Tran, writing in the Australian Financial Review [1] last week, analysed the annual Dealogic league tables for the financial year just ended. The headline figures belong to the big end of town. Goldman Sachs topped the M&A rankings, advising on around US$30 billion (A$48 billion) of announced transactions, with UBS close behind after working on the year’s largest deal — Macquarie Asset Management’s $11.7 billion acquisition of Qube. 

The Middle East conflict, rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns made for an uncertain backdrop. Yet the message from investment bankers was remarkably consistent: corporate confidence continued to strengthen as boards looked beyond short-term volatility and focused on long-term strategic opportunities. 

Two comments particularly caught my attention. Goldman’s Zac Fletcher said deal activity is broad-based and sees “no reason for current activity levels not to continue”. UBS’s Nick Brown observed that buyer interest extends across “virtually every sector”, with strategic buyers, private equity firms and infrastructure investors all competing for quality assets. He also noted that many of the strongest outcomes for sellers are increasingly being achieved through carefully managed intelligent negotiations.  

That reflects exactly what we are seeing at Oasis Partners. In the mid-market, the right buyer, properly matched to the right business, will often pay a premium regardless of what is dominating the headlines. 

The equity capital markets rankings reinforce the same message. Canaccord Genuity — hardly one of the traditional bulge-bracket investment banks — topped the ECM tables with 184 transactions by focusing on emerging and mid-sized companies across resources, healthcare, critical minerals, and AI-related businesses. 

When the country’s busiest capital markets adviser builds its business around growth companies rather than billion-dollar transactions, it tells you where the greatest depth of activity and investor appetite really exists. 

Which brings me to one of the questions business owners ask me most often: “Should I wait for a better market?” 

Consider what dealmakers have faced this year: conflict in the Middle East, oil price volatility, inflation concerns and a delayed IPO market. Despite all of that, buyers have continued to acquire businesses, valuations have remained resilient and transaction volumes across most sectors have held up well. 

Private equity still has significant capital to deploy. Strategic acquirers continue to pursue growth through acquisition. And AI is forcing boards across virtually every industry to rethink their competitive position, often making acquisitions an attractive way to accelerate capability. 

After nearly four decades advising business owners, I have learned one simple lesson: nobody rings a bell at the top of the market. 

The owners who achieve the best outcomes are rarely those who try to time market cycles. They are the ones who run their businesses properly — accurate financials, reduced reliance on the owner, a compelling go-forward story and a clear strategic plan — and who go to market when their personal circumstances suggest they are ready. 

And in case that’s not enough to persuade you, the right strategic buyer will look well beyond the economic backdrop and will have already determined that they can leverage the situation – where 1+1 equals 3 or 4, as they tap into both the cost and marketing synergies.        

The buyers are active today. They are well-funded and looking for quality businesses. Whether next quarter’s headlines are optimistic or pessimistic is, in most cases, beside the point.